Super-Forecasting

By Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (2015)

Not a climate change book but an important read for anyone interested in how to objectively evaluate information and make more accurate predictions about the future.

The book is based around a 35+ years long project, run by Philip Tetlock at the University of Pennsylvania, to try and understand what it is that makes individuals better or worse at predicting the future. The team started by recruiting ‘serious professionals’ and went on to include volunteers from all walks of like, asking them to make predictions on just about anything and keeping score over decades. The conclusion: “the average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart throwing chimpanzee”. But they did identify ~2% of individuals who could, year after year, make better predictions than everyone else. What differentiates the ‘super-forecasters’ is not expertise, PhDs, or international acclaim but the ability to single-handedly use the wisdom of crowds: they can look beyond the intuitive answer, think about probability outcomes, aggregate multiple viewpoints, avoid conformational bias, and learn from their mistakes. All very important attributes to consider when thinking about possible solutions to climate change. A must read.

*Book cover credit: Weather vane Shutterstock

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