The Tragedy of the Commons
In this post from the book NET-ZERO:
What is the Tragedy of the Commons? The battle between self-interest versus the greater good.
What are economic externalities? The third-party impact of our transactions.
Why are market failures slowing action on climate change? Externalities, hyperbolic discounting, lack of information, status quo bias, lock-in, and the renter-tenant dilemma. Just some of the market failures slowing progress to net-zero.
The Tragedy of the Commons
In his essay written in 1833, British economist William Forster Lloyd used the hypothetical example of farmers over-grazing cattle on common land to describe how a system designed for individual gain can create a detrimental outcome for all. Then in 1968, US ecologist Garret Hardin further explored this type of social dilemma and coined the term “the tragedy of the commons”.
Hardin believed family planning (as a human right) and the welfare state were to blame for overbreeding:
“no technical solution can rescue us from the misery of overpopulation”. . . “the only way we can preserve and nurture other and more precious freedoms is by relinquishing the freedom to breed”.
Hardin was a firm believer in limits to growth and his thinking caught on.
A Grazing Cow (Unsplash, Teresa Vega)
The Failures of the Market
The concept of the ‘tragedy of the commons’ can help to explain why the market, left to its own devices, is unlikely to create a perfect solution to greenhouse gas emissions.
The free-market can be thought of as trillions of two-way trades, the mutual exchange of goods and services between two parties, where both parties end up better off - or else why would they make the exchange.
In a perfect market, these trades continue until they reach the Pareto optimum, the point at which no more mutually beneficial trades can be made.
However, real markets are not perfect.
Firstly, there are externalities, where an unwitting third party is impacted as a result of the two-way trade. Think about each time we exchange our paid labour to use a service which burns coal, oil, or gas; we make a two-way trade, but we also emit pollution which damages a third party (the planet and everyone on it).
Our individual gain negatively impacts the common good, so without intervention the harm from emitting greenhouse gases goes unchecked. We can pollute the atmosphere, but we don’t pay for the damage.
Putting a tax on greenhouse gas emissions is one way of bringing this externality inside the market regime, but implementing and enforcing these measures have thus far proven politically challenging (we will look closer at carbon pricing and politics in another post).
A Factory Manufacturing Goods and Emitting CO2 (Unsplash by ETA+)
But even if we could bring the damage inflicted by greenhouse gases inside the market system, there are many other market imperfections which stand in the way of decarbonising the economy.
For example, hyperbolic discounting is the aversion to spending money upfront, even if you save money long term. Spending an extra $5,000 buying an electric car may work out cheaper through the life of the vehicle, but for many consumers it feels more expensive, and they don’t want to part with the cash upfront: we mentally use a very large discount rate.
Next, let’s think about heat pumps, which can replace natural gas boilers to enable a net-zero system. Heat pumps have a similar upfront cost to gas boilers but with less environmental impact; surely uptake here should be easy? Except there is a lack of information and a preference for the status quo. If consumers don’t have the information on how they work, or recommendations from friends and family, we tend to wait for others to test the waters. Better the devil you know.
Well, what about insulating the roof, surely that’s a no-brainer? It’s cheap, pays itself back in a year, and saves money on heating for another fifty. But only if you live in the house. Landlords have no incentive to insulate their rental properties because the tenants receive the benefit.
Switching to LED light? Too small a saving to bother. Building a nuclear plant? Too big to finance. A new electric cooker? But I only bought the gas one two years ago or I’m thinking of moving soon, so why bother? The list goes on. . .
Overcoming Hurdles to Change
The transition to a cheaper, better, net-zero system is inevitable, but change is happening too slowly. The Tragedy of the Commons and Market Failures are just a few examples in a long list of other hurdles (apathy, inequality, freeriding, political wrangling, and deliberate sabotage) which must be overcome if we are to create change for the better, and drive a rapid transition to net-zero.
Misaligned economic interests may show why markets alone are unequipped to find the optimal path to zero carbon, but we already have all the economic and political tools necessary to expedite the process, and systematically correct these failures.
Recognising that net-zero will be cheaper, cleaner, safer, more reliable, more sustainable, and will create more jobs than remaining bound to fossil fuels and we can help to breakdown the climate divide, and to push for change.
The technologies which enable long-term energy storage - from heat, to pumping water to manufacturing hydrogen. How will long term storage work and what will it cost?
Why Lithium-ion batteries and pumped hydro are the leading candidates for short duration grid energy storage. And why renewables electricity generation plus storage will be cheaper than fossil fuel electricity in a Net-Zero future.
From short-term energy storage to seasonal energy storage - how do we balance supply and demand in a Net-Zero future. Pumped Hydro, Batteries, Compressed Air, Gravity, Demand Response, Hydrogen and e-Fuels: the technology ready to take on the energy storage challenge.
Tree Planting, Rock Weathering, Ocean Nutrition, Direct Air Capture, and Biomass with Carbon Capture - the pros and cons of sucking CO2 from the air. Why Negative Emissions Technology is useful for slowing Global Warming and offsetting hard-to-abate emissions, but will likely be limited to 10-30% of the solution.
Climate change will reduce the availability of fresh water due to rising heat, dry soils, more extreme downpours and flooding. Continue burning fossil fuels and we risk running dry this century. Switch to Net-Zero and the World can better manage natural resources.
How climate scientists use General Circulation Models to calculate future CO2-led temperature increases and amplifying feedback mechanisms. And why the next generation of Earth System Models may find further temperature amplifying effects and dangerous tipping points.
Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for more than 90% of all air pollutants. It generates invisible particulate matter which heightens the risk of respiratory disease and heart failure, leading to the premature deaths of 4-9 million people each year (15% of all deaths). Shift the global energy system to NET-ZERO and we can eliminate most air pollution issues.
The regions of the world most vulnerable to searing summer temperatures. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat-related events in a warmer world. How deliberate human-induced forest burning is down, but wildfires are up. And why fewer winter deaths will be overwhelmed by increasing heat-deaths.
The countries and cities around the World most at risk from rising seas and more frequent and/or more intense extreme wet weather.
Mirrors in space, manipulating clouds, or painting the Earth white to slow or halt global warming. Why solar radiation management techniques appear a cheap and quick fix, but don’t offer a complete solution to climate change and run a seriously high risk of going badly wrong.
The Swedish chemist who first pieced together the maths of global warming, the British Engineer who first warned of climate change, and how even the earliest climate models have proven highly accurate.
Why CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere and has already warmed the Earth by over 1⁰C and how we are emitting CO2 ten times faster than the fastest warming event in 60 million years of Earth’s history.
The major greenhouse gases and where they come from. Why different greenhouse gases have different warming impacts on the planet. How each greenhouse gas has contributed to warming so far and why CO2 is centre stage.
Over 100 years of climate science and predictions. Global frameworks for climate action and what they mean, how the Paris Accord and NDCs work, and why we are still heading for 3 degrees warming.
The carbon cycle, Milankovitch cycles, and human emissions - how planet Earth has gone from Icebox to Greenhouse.
Why carbon capture technology could prove useful in reaching net-zero but limitations on distribution, storage, and costs mean that it will likely be limited to less than 10% of emissions and should be reserved for hard-to-abate areas of the economy like cement, chemicals, and fertilisers.
From fossil fuels, to nuclear, to renewables - how do we choose the energy mix for a sustainable future with safe, reliable, low-cost, and zero-carbon energy?
Why the sun provides enough energy to power the economy 7,000 times over. And how burning coal, oil, and gas over the last 200 years has provided the surplus energy, knowledge, and innovation required to unleash the net-zero technologies for a sustainable future.
Net-Zero is about technology not geology. Learning curves describe the rate at which the cost of modular technologies decline with scale (not time) and point to wind and solar becoming by far the cheapest form of electricity generation once fully scaled.
The economics of shifting steel, cement, and chemicals to zero carbon. And how sustainable wood products & the fourth industrial revolution could help us reach net-zero.
The quantity of greenhouse gases released during the industrial production of the stuff we all consume. And why production (rather than consumption) estimates flatter developed countries’ carbon footprints.
Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and why population controls are ineffective, curbing consumption is useful but culturally challenging, efficiency improvements are great but only slow change, and why net-zero technologies are needed for a complete solution.
For each person earning over $16,000 per year in the richest top 10% of the world there is someone stuck in the bottom 10% earning less than $1,000 per year. As everyone rightfully strives for a top 10% lifestyle emissions could double to over 100 billion tonnes per year and lock-in unknowable damage unless we rapidly transition to a net-zero system.
What does the 2008 financial crisis have in common with climate change risks? Underestimating fat-tails, sub-system collapse, and systemic breakdown - why the carbon crunch could be ten times worse than the credit crunch.
Understanding and attributing the impacts of climate change to support collective action and a least cost solution. The iterative prisoner’s dilemma and how the world is overcoming self-interest.
A brief history of shale gas, fracking, and the quest for ever greater quantities of cheap energy. Calculating the remaining resources of oil, gas, coal, and uranium. And the abundant materials available to build solar panels and wind turbines for a sustainable energy future.
The richest 10% of countries emit 30% of CO2 and take home 50% of global income today. They are also responsible for over 50% of all past emissions and hold 80% of the world’s accumulated wealth. Climate Justice is about how we balance the responsibility for past, present, and future emissions whilst driving a rapid transition to net-zero.
Why the total lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, and geothermal are at least ten times lower than fossil fuels. How natural gas emissions can be just as bad as coal. And why biofuels are not as low-carbon as you might assume.
Externalities, hyperbolic discounting, lack of information, status quo bias, lock-in, and the renter-tenant dilemma. Just some of the market failures slowing progress towards net-zero.
Comparing the power density of fossil fuel, nuclear, and renewable energy generation. Why wind and solar could power the planet using just 1% of Earth’s dryland.
For more on market failures and climate policy, see ‘Designing Climate Solutions’ by Hal Harvey in the bookshelf.